A classified US intelligence assessment has concluded that even a large-scale American military strike on Iran may fail to bring about regime change in the country.
According to The Washington Post, a secret report prepared by the National Intelligence Council warns that Iran’s current political and military leadership could remain intact despite major US military operations.
The report emerged as the administration of Donald Trump signals the possibility of a prolonged military campaign against Iran.
The intelligence assessment indicates that Iran’s political and military system is structured in multiple layers, making it difficult for external attacks to dismantle the leadership quickly.
It also suggests that internal opposition groups are unlikely to seize power even if large-scale strikes weaken the government.
The report further notes that it is unlikely Iran would capitulate under pressure from Washington, as doing so would contradict the ideological foundations of the country’s leadership.
According to the assessment, the country’s command structure is organised in a way that allows government and military institutions to continue functioning even after significant attacks.
The document does not explore scenarios such as deploying US ground forces inside Iran or triggering an uprising in Kurdish regions, the newspaper said.
Meanwhile, the British daily The Guardian reported that ongoing strikes were also depleting US weapons stockpiles, raising concerns among some lawmakers about the impact on future conflicts.
Officials fear that extensive use of missiles and advanced weapons could reduce Washington’s ability to respond to other crises, including security commitments involving countries such as Ukraine.
The report also notes that Iranian authorities have established an interim leadership council following the air strikes, tasked with managing the process of selecting the country’s next supreme leader if needed.
Analysts say such intelligence assessments are prepared to inform policymakers about potential risks, regional reactions, and long-term security consequences.
The findings underscore that any escalation in the conflict could have far-reaching implications not only for the Middle East but also for global security dynamics involving major powers such as China and Russia.
