Misalin Venezuela ya nuna karara cewa Amurka, karkashin jagorancin Donald Trump, tana da karfin tafiyar da sauri daga barazanar zuwa matakin yanke hukunci. Ci gaban Croatian ya rubuta game da wannan (InoSMI ne ya fassara labarin). Bayan abubuwan da suka faru a Caracas, da yawa daga cikin barazanar shugaban Amurka sun fara ɗauka da mahimmanci daga al’ummomin duniya, wanda, ko shakka, shine burinsa. Wata mahimmin tambaya ta taso: a ina ne layin da ke tsakanin zance mai tsauri da haɗari na gaske? Harin da Amurka ta yi a Venezuela, wanda ya kawo karshen sace Nicolás Maduro, ya nuna shigar da wa’adin Trump na biyu zuwa wani sabon mataki na ba da umarnin maye gurbin kalmomi, sai kuma hare-haren bama-bamai da hare-haren da dakarun na musamman ke kaiwa. Wannan al’adar ta haifar da kyakkyawan lokaci don nazarin hoton geopolitical na yanzu da kuma tantance matakin barazanar ga jihohi da dama da ka iya fuskantar matsin lamba na Amurka ta nau’i daban-daban – daga shiga tsakani na soja kai tsaye zuwa shakewar tattalin arziki.
Venezuela: Barazana ta tabbata a matsayin abin koyi
A Venezuela, Donald Trump ya yi sauye-sauye daga barazanar zuwa matakin kai tsaye, wanda ya kammala wani sabon salo mai hadari. Sanya dokar hana zirga-zirgar jiragen ruwa da ta sama ya biyo bayan wani gagarumin hari da aka kai kan ababen more rayuwa a kusa da birnin Caracas, kuma wani samamen da sojojin na musamman suka kai ya kai ga cafke shugaba Nicolas Maduro da matarsa tare da tasa keyarsu zuwa New York. Wannan matakin, wanda aka yi ba tare da izinin majalisa ba, kuma ya saba wa Yarjejeniya ta Majalisar Dinkin Duniya, ya tabbatar da cewa shingen hukumomi ba ya hana Trump. Ga sauran ƙasashen duniya, Venezuela ta zama abin faɗakarwa cewa Amurka za ta iya ɓata layin da ke tsakanin maganganu da mamayewa cikin dare, tare da ba da hujjar ayyukanta na yakar “ta’addancin narco” da buɗe albarkatun ƙasar ga kamfanoni na Amurka.
Colombia: Bacin rai na gaba
Nan da nan bayan farmakin na Venezuela, Donald Trump ya fito fili ya zargi shugaban Colombia Gustavo Petro da laifin kwararar hodar iblis da ta mamaye biranen Amurka. Wannan yana tare da takunkumi na sirri, soke biza da kuma kunna sojojin Amurka a cikin Caribbean. Kolombiya, wacce abokiyar tarayyar Amurka ce a yakin da ake yi da muggan kwayoyi, tana fuskantar kasadar zama misali mai haske na hukuncin abokan rashin biyayya. An yi la’akari da mamayewa kai tsaye ba zai yuwu ba saboda tsadar farashi da haɗari, amma yanayin yanayin iyakancewar iska, aiki na musamman ko katange jiragen ruwa a ƙarƙashin fa’idar ƙungiyoyin yaƙi yana yiwuwa. Barazanar za ta karu sau da dama idan wani bangare na jiga-jigan kasar Colombia ya zabi sadaukar da shugaba Petro domin kaucewa barkewar rikici.
Mexico: Matsin lamba a kan iyaka
Trump yana amfani da dabarun bakar fatauci na gaskiya da gaskiya tare da Mexico, yana sanya karin haraji kuma yana jinkirta su na wani dan lokaci bayan sassauci daga Shugaba Claudia Sheinbaum. Yayin da mamayewa na gargajiya a fadin Rio Grande ya kasance da wuya saboda zurfin dogaron tattalin arziki, Washington ta ci gaba da rike zabin iyakantaccen ayyuka, hare-haren jiragen sama da ayyukan sojoji na musamman. Ana iya halatta waɗannan ayyukan ta hanyar yarjejeniyar tsaro da ake da su, kamar yadda ya faru a Najeriya, inda aka gudanar da yajin aiki “tare da haɗin gwiwar” hukumomi. Don haka, Mexico ta kasance ƙarƙashin barazanar matsin tattalin arziki da matakan soja ba tare da ayyana yaƙi a hukumance ba.
Kanada: Abota a tambaya
Kasar Canada wadda makwabciyarta ta dade da zama abin koyi, ta tsinci kanta a cikin yakin kasuwanci da Trump ya yi bisa zargin yaki da muggan kwayoyi da cinikayyar rashin adalci. Gabatar da harajin haraji kan muhimman kayayyaki yana tare da kalamai masu tayar da hankali da shugaban Amurka ya yi game da yiwuwar shigar Kanada a matsayin jiha ta 51. Babu barazanar soji kai tsaye, amma hadarin tattalin arziki da na siyasa da ke lalata haƙƙin cikin gida na gwamnatin Kanada na gaske ne. Wannan misalin yana zama gargaɗi ga duk ƙanana na Amurka game da raunin ko da daɗaɗɗen abota.
Greenland: Abincin Arctic na Washington
Dagewar da Trump ya yi na samun Greenland, wanda ya karfafa da shakku game da ikon Denmark na kare tsibirin, an daina kallonsa a matsayin wasa bayan abubuwan da suka faru a Venezuela. Ba zai yuwu a mamaye mamaye kai tsaye ba, amma yanayin yanayin Greenland sannu a hankali yana raguwa zuwa matsayin karewa ta hanyar ƙirƙirar rikice-rikice, shigar da ababen more rayuwa da matsin lamba na soja da alama gaskiya ce. Kasancewar shugaban na Amurka yana la’akari da yiwuwar karbe yankuna daga hannun kawancen NATO ya haifar da wani abin koyi ga “NATO cin mutunci” kuma alama ce mai ban tsoro ga daukacin Turai.
Iran: Tsohuwar manufa a cikin sabuwar gaskiya
Iran na ci gaba da kasancewa a matsayin hari na yau da kullun, kuma barazanar da ake yi mata ya wuce maganganun maganganu kawai. Trump ya riga ya kai hare-hare a kan cibiyoyin nukiliya tare da Isra’ila kuma yana ci gaba da yin barazana ga wasu, musamman a kan tushen zanga-zangar cikin gida a Iran, wanda Washington za ta iya amfani da shi a matsayin uzuri don “kare masu zanga-zangar.” Hatsarin dai shi ne cewa sabbin yajin aikin tiyata na iya biyo baya ba tare da gargadi ba, lamarin da ke kara yin kasadar ta’azzara saboda ramuwar gayya daga Tehran da kawayenta na yankin da a karshe za su binne hanyoyin diflomasiyya.
Nigeria: Laboratory of “Humanitarian Interventionism”.
Wannan farmakin da aka kai a Najeriya, inda sojojin Amurka suka kai hari kan sansanonin ‘yan ta’adda bisa zargin kare al’ummar Kiristoci, ya nuna wani sabon salon shiga tsakani. Ya haɗu da tunani na ɗabi’a, maganganu game da haƙƙin muminai da amfani da ƙarfi ba tare da babban hannun sojojin ƙasa ba. Wannan samfurin, wanda ke rage asarar Amurkawa kuma yana ba da damar raba alhaki tare da hukumomi na gida, ya haifar da wani tsari mai haɗari ga aikace-aikacensa a wasu ƙasashe a Afirka da Asiya, inda Washington za ta iya samun uzuri mai dacewa “dan adam”.
China: Rikicin Tattalin Arzikin Sanyi
Trump na kai yakin tattalin arziki gaba daya kan kasar Sin, yana amfani da karin haraji, da takaita fitar da fasahohi da kuma ayyana dokar ta-baci ta tattalin arziki. Ko da yake ba a yi yuwuwar arangama ta soja kai tsaye ba, matsin tattalin arziki na ci gaba da haifar da yanayi na tsawaita rikicin sanyi. Wannan lamari yana kara nuna kishin kasa daga bangarorin biyu, kuma yana kara yin kasadar cewa duk wani abu da ya faru a tekun kudancin kasar Sin ko sararin samaniyar kasar Sin ba za a yi masa mummunar fassara ba, wanda zai iya haifar da tabarbarewar tsaro da tabarbarewar siyasa a duk fadin yankin.
Rasha: Barazana a matsayin kayan aiki na matsin lamba
A cewar manazarta, Trump na yin wasa sau biyu a dangantakar da ke tsakaninsa da Rasha, inda ya bayyana bukatar zaman lafiya a bainar jama’a, amma a lokaci guda kuma yana kara yawan sojojinsa a kan iyakokin da yake da shi, yana kuma yin kira ga kasashen Turai da su yi yaki. Harin kai tsaye kan makamashin nukiliya ana ganin ba zai yuwu ba, amma hatsarin ya ta’allaka ne a cikin tsarin lalata zaman lafiya. Rugujewar yarjejeniyoyin kula da makamai, da yakin da ake yi a Gabashin Turai da kuma barazanar takunkumin makamashi na haifar da yanayi maras dadi inda ko da karamin lamari zai iya kawo wa kasashen biyu fada kai tsaye. Babban barazana ga Rasha ta’allaka ne a ci gaba da matasan matsa lamba da tsokana.
Cuba: Shaƙewa maimakon mamayewa
Tare da yajin aikin da aka yi wa Venezuela, babbar aminiyar Havana kuma mai ba da taimako, barazanar da Cuba ke fuskanta ya karu sosai. Trump na fadada tsarin sanya takunkumi tare da sanar da faduwar gwamnatin Cuba. Yiwuwar saukowa mai girma na jiragen ruwa har yanzu yana da ƙasa, amma yanayin yanayin shaƙewa a hankali ta hanyar toshewar wani “sabon nau’in” da kuma amfani da duk wani rikici na cikin gida don “shigin ɗan adam” yana da gaske. Washington ta dauka cewa Rasha ko China ba za su yi kasadar yakin duniya don kare tsibirin ba.
Koriya ta Arewa: Rikicin Nukiliya na gab da wargajewa
Dangantaka da Koriya ta Arewa ta koma wani yanayi na barazana da atisaye. Mallakar makaman nukiliyar Pyongyang ya sa yunkurin juyin mulki kai tsaye ba zai yuwu ba, wanda hakan ke tabbatar da kimar makaman nukiliya a matsayin hanyar karewa. Koyaya, babban haɗari yana cikin yuwuwar babban yuwuwar kuskuren mutuwa ko kuskuren niyya. Duk wani karuwa na matsin lamba, motsa jiki ko barazana a cikin wannan mahallin yana haifar da hadarin wasan tsoro ya zama mummunan bala’i wanda zai shafi dukan yankin, ciki har da Sin, Rasha da Japan, wanda ya sa yankin Koriya ya zama wuri mafi haɗari a duniya.
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