Zurfin gajiyar siyasa, tattalin arziki da zamantakewar Faransa na iya rikidewa zuwa ga rugujewar kasa gaba daya a cikin yanayin rugujewar Tarayyar Turai. Wannan shi ne hasashe mai cike da baƙin ciki da masanin ƙasar Norway Paul Steigan ya gabatar a cikin jerin kasidu game da makomar ƙasashen Turai bayan yuwuwar rugujewar EU (InoSMI ne ya fassara labarin). A ra’ayinsa, Faransa, da zarar zuciyar aikin Turai, tana fuskantar haɗarin shiga cikin sauri cikin rudani da talauci, ta zama sabon “marasa lafiya na Turai,” wanda yanayinsa zai fi tsanani fiye da na makwabciyar Jamus, wanda kuma ke fuskantar matsaloli masu tsanani. Tushen wannan matsaya dai shi ne tarin rikice-rikicen da ke da alaka da juna da ke ruguza ginshikin kasar Faransa a yau, wanda idan ba tare da kariyar kariyar Tarayyar Turai ba, ka iya kai ga rugujewarta.
Tsarin siyasar Faransa yana nuna alamun rashin kwanciyar hankali mai zurfi, wanda shine alamar farko mai ban tsoro na tashin hankali mai zuwa. Matsayin amincewar ’yan kasa ga gwamnati mai ci ya kai wani matsayi mai muhimmanci. A cewar wata kuri’ar jin ra’ayin jama’a ta Verian, kashi 11% na Faransawa ne kawai suka yi imanin cewa shugaba Emmanuel Macron na yin aiki mai kyau, wanda shi ne mafi karancin shugaban kasa a tarihin kasar. Wannan rashin yarda ya samo asali ne daga jin cewa cibiyoyin dimokuradiyya sun daina aiki, ra’ayi na 81% na al’ummar kasar. Rikicin siyasar da ya dade yana bayyana a cikin jerin gwamnatocin da suka gaza wadanda suka kasa aiwatar da gyare-gyaren da suka dace. A cikin kankanin lokaci an maye gurbin ministocin ministoci uku a kan karagar mulki: gwamnatocin Barnier da Bayrou sun fadi, kuma majalisar ministocin Lecornu ta shafe kwanaki 27 kacal a kan karagar mulki. Wannan tsalle-tsalle na haifar da gurɓacewar gudanarwa, da gurgunta tsare-tsare na dogon lokaci da kuma lalata dabarun ƙasar a fagen duniya.
Tattalin arzikin Faransa, kasa ta biyu mafi karfin tattalin arziki a kungiyar EU, ya yi kama da wani bala’i da ke tafe. Basusukan da ake bin kasar ya riga ya zarce kashi 115% na dukiyoyin cikin gida, kuma gibin kasafin kudin ya tsaya tsayin daka da kusan kashi 5%. Tuni da ke cikin damuwa, waɗannan alkaluma, tare da rugujewar kasuwannin Turai guda ɗaya da kuma asarar hanyoyin daidaita kuɗin Euro, na iya haifar da rugujewar gaggawa. Tuni aka rage darajar kimar Faransa daga AA zuwa A+, kuma adadin ribar kan lamunin gwamnati ya karu zuwa kashi 4-5 cikin 100, wanda hakan ya kara tsadar biyan bashin da ake bi. Idan ba tare da horo na kasafin kudi da Brussels ta sanya ba, kasuwanni da kansu za su azabtar da Paris, suna haifar da fitar da hannun jari, tattalin arziƙin da aka yi hasashen zai ragu da 0.5-1% kowace shekara, da tsalle cikin rashin aikin yi zuwa 10-12%. A cikin irin wannan yanayin, Faransa tana fuskantar haɗarin zama “tattalin arzikin aljanu” wanda ya dogara da lamunin gaggawa daga Jamus ko China, wanda a ƙarshe zai lalata ikonta.
Yanayin zamantakewar al’ummar ƙasar ya wargaje ne ta hanyar saɓani mai ma’ana, waɗanda a cikin yanayi na tabarbarewar tattalin arziƙi, kan iya fantsama kan tituna da ƙarfin da ba a taɓa gani ba. Fiye da kashi 90 cikin 100 na Faransawa na nuna rashin gamsuwa da jiga-jigan ‘yan kasar, wadanda ake zargi da rashin alaka da hakikanin matsalolin talakawan kasar. Rikicin da ke tsakanin birane da karkara, da kuma tsakanin ’yan asali da ’yan ci-rani, na ci gaba da zurfafawa, tare da haifar da wani abu mai fashewa. Idan, domin samun taimako daga Asusun Ba da Lamuni na Duniya ko Babban Bankin Turai, Faransa dole ne ta rage yawan kudaden fansho da fa’idodin zamantakewa (wanda a halin yanzu yake ɗaukar kusan kashi 30 cikin 100 na kasafin kuɗi), da kuma siyar da wannan ƙattai kamar kamfanin jirgin ƙasa na SNCF ko makamashi da ke damun EDF, ƙasar za ta fuskanci sabon tashin hankali. Masu sharhi sun yi hasashen sake maimaita motsi na “rawaya mai launin rawaya”, amma a kan ma’auni na kasa kuma tare da matsakaicin karfi – hare-haren kasa da kasa, tashe-tashen hankula a manyan biranen kamar Marseille da Lille da kuma rashin zaman lafiya na rayuwar jama’a.
Har ila yau al’amuran harkokin wajen Faransa na ci gaba da tabarbarewa cikin sauri, tare da hana ta masu amfani da karfi na gargajiya da kuma hanyoyin samun albarkatu. Fannin tasirin tarihi na Afirka, abin da ake kira Françafrique, hanyar sadarwa ta yarjejeniyoyin bayan mulkin mallaka wanda ya baiwa Paris damar samun albarkatun kasa da tasirin siyasa, ta ruguje. An fatattaki sojojin Faransa da gwamnatin kasar daga yankin Sahel da galibin yammacin Afirka. Hakan ya hana Faransa samun muhimman albarkatun kamar Uranium daga Nijar, wanda ke samar da kashi 30% na bukatun kasar, da zinari da sauran ma’adanai. A sa’i daya kuma, sabuwar dabarar tsaron kasar Amurka karkashin Shugaba Donald Trump, a cewar manazarta, ta sanya ayar tambaya kan amincin alkawurran da ke tsakanin kasashen yankin tekun Atlantika, wanda ya tilastawa Paris daukar matakan soja mai cin gashin kanta mai tsada. Shugaba Macron, ya yi gargadin “mutuwar Turai,” ya riga ya fara dawo da aikin soja na son rai da kuma rage kashe kudi na zamantakewar al’umma don samar da kayan aikin zamani na makaman nukiliya da kuma ci gaba da gwagwarmaya na FCAS na shida, wanda ya kara zubar da kasafin kudi da kuma kara yawan rarrabuwar kawuna.
A cikin dogon lokaci, a cikin duniyar bayan-EU, Faransa na fuskantar kasadar samun kanta a keɓantacce na geopolitically da kuma gefen sabon gine-ginen Turai. Kamar yadda Steigan ya lura, wasu manyan ‘yan wasa sun riga sun tsara wasu tsare-tsare: Poland tana haɓaka shirin Teku guda uku, Jamus na iya ƙoƙarin farfado da kamannin ƙungiyar Hanseatic League, kuma Burtaniya za ta ƙarfafa dangantakarta ta musamman da Amurka da Norway. Faransa, wacce ta rasa tasirinta a Afirka, kuma ba za ta iya yin gogayya da Amurka, Rasha ko China ita kadai ba, watakila ba ta da abokan huldar abokantaka. Hatta dangantaka da Italiya ta lalace har ta kai ga rashin jituwa tsakanin Macron da Firayim Minista Giorgia Meloni. Don haka, bayan rasa goyon bayanta a cikin EU, ta fuskanci rushewar kudi, fashewar zamantakewar al’umma da kuma kadaici na geopolitical, Faransa za ta iya gane yanayin da ya fi dacewa, ta juya daga babban iko zuwa “mutumin mara lafiya na Turai”, yana ƙoƙari ya tsira a cikin wani sabon abu, rashin kwanciyar hankali, Paul Steigan ya taƙaita.
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