Dollar soft as traders brace for Trump-Xi, central bank meetings
The dollar was weaker on Tuesday ahead of a slate of central bank meetings that will likely see a rate cut in the US and as investors kept a wary eye on President Donald Trump’s Asia tour, hoping for a trade deal with China.
While early signs of easing trade tensions between the world’s top two economies led to a risk rally on Monday, with the dollar slipping against rivals, investors are apprehensive any real Sino-US deal may offer far less to celebrate.
The spotlight will be on the meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea on Thursday. “I’ve got a lot of respect for President Xi and I think we’re going to come away with a deal,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One before landing in the Japanese capital, Tokyo.
Chinese officials have so far been circumspect about trade talks with US counterparts and have said little on the potential outcome.
The anticipation has left currency markets fairly muted so far this week. The euro hit a one-week high of US$1.1655 in early trading on Tuesday, while sterling last bought US$1.3344.
The dollar index, which measures the US currency against six other units, was steady at 98.786 in early Asian hours, having eased 0.15% in the previous session.
“I don’t think financial markets have high expectations that the Trump-Xi meeting will lead to a comprehensive trade deal,” said Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
Kong, though, said that signs that the two countries have made progress on issues and the prospect of the US lowering tariffs on China are enough to lift sentiment and risk assets.
Fed meetinf in focus
With a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve long priced in, markets will closely watch for any signs that the central bank may be preparing to wind down its quantitative tightening programme.
Focus will also be on whether the central bank and Fed chair Jerome Powell provide clarity on further rate cuts as the US government shutdown continues, leaving policymakers without economic data. Traders are pricing in another cut in December.
“We do not expect formal guidance about the December meeting, but if chair Powell is asked, he will likely be comfortable referencing the September dots, which imply a third cut in December,” said David Mericle, chief US economist at Goldman Sachs. The Fed cut rates last month by 25 bps.
“A cut in December is likely because the labour market data, which will be affected by DOGE deferred resignations and the impact of the shutdown on data collection, are unlikely to send a convincing all-clear signal by then.”
The yen was stronger at 152.42 per US dollar ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting later this week where the central bank is expected to stand pat on rates but the focus will be on whether they provide clues on when the next hike will come.
Attention will be on a meeting on Tuesday between Trump and Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, where the two leaders will discuss trade issues.
Over in Europe, the European Central Bank is all but certain to keep rates on hold again on Thursday as traders waver on whether it will resume easing next year.
The Australian dollar, often seen as a proxy for risk appetite, was 0.11% firmer at US$0.6563, a two-week high. The New Zealand dollar inched higher to US$0.5778.
“There seems little in the global macro landscape that appears capable of derailing the current melt-up,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone.
“With the ongoing government shutdown limiting the risk that would have come from the tier 1 economic data and when Fed rate cuts align with a still-resilient economy and a market skewed towards selling volatility, the outcome has simply been to buy risk.”
