A new study produced by the University of Birmingham Dubai, in collaboration with the World Health Organization (WHO) Regional Office for the Eastern Mediterranean, warns that diabetes poses a significant economic threat to the Eastern Mediterranean (EMRO) region.
The research, led by Dr. Khalifa Elmusharaf, Associate Professor and Director of the Public Health Programme at the University of Birmingham Dubai, estimates that diabetes cost the region $ 639 billion in 2023, a figure projected to rise to $ 1.5 trillion by 2050 in the absence of urgent intervention.
The study provides the most comprehensive estimate to date of both direct health costs and indirect productivity losses associated with diabetes across 22 countries.
“This study sends a clear message to policymakers — diabetes is silently draining our economies,” said Dr. Khalifa Elmusharaf, Associate Professor and Director of the Public Health Programme at the University of Birmingham Dubai.
“The majority of this burden — nearly 90% — comes from lost productivity, not hospital bills. If we continue to underinvest in prevention, the human and economic costs will become unmanageable.”
Key Findings from the study indicate that:
- Over 74 million people in the region were living with diabetes in 2023
- The disease caused over 830,000 deaths last year
- 89% of the total economic burden is due to indirect costs (loss of productivity and early deaths)
- The annual economic burden equals 5.9% of regional GDP
- By 2050, diabetes cases will double to 150 million, with 2 million deaths per year expected
The study used a cost-of-illness methodology, incorporating data from the International Diabetes Federation, IHME, and the World Bank. The societal cost of premature deaths was measured using the Value of a Statistical Life-Year (VSLY) – an approach that captures losses beyond traditional productivity metrics.
