BAKU: Iranian drone strikes on Azerbaijan have raised fears that the Middle East war could spill into the Caucasus, as Baku, an ally of Israel, vows to respond.
Azerbaijan announced on Friday it was withdrawing diplomatic staff from Iran, a day after drones launched from Iranian territory targeted an airport and exploded near a school in the country’s Nakhichevan exclave, bordering Iran.
Four people were wounded.
President Ilham Aliyev accused Tehran of carrying out the act and ordered the armed forces to prepare retaliatory measures, placing them on the highest level of mobilisation.
Iran denied responsibility and blamed Israel of staging a provocation aimed at disrupting relations between the countries.
Tehran has long accused Israel of using Azerbaijani territory for intelligence operations and potential attacks.
The drone strikes have fuelled concerns that the war could spill into the strategically sensitive South Caucasus, some analysts said.
“The risk of the war spreading to the Caucasus is not small”, Armenian analyst Hakob Badalyan said.
“Much will depend on the risks Baku and its ally Ankara are willing to take in responding to the attack”.
The attack has also raised questions about who is calling the shots in Iran and the unpredictability of its military command structure.
“The chain of command within Iran’s armed forces is unclear”, said Farhad Mammadov, head of the Baku-based South Caucasus Studies Centre.
The country has a dual structure, whereby Iran’s defence ministry and general staff operate alongside the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
“This creates a high degree of unpredictability”, Mammadov added.
He expected Azerbaijan’s response would be defensive and said he believed it had no plans to launch ground operations against Iran.
“The possibility of escalation will depend on the actions of the Iranian side”, he added.
Azerbaijani lawmaker Rasim Musabekov has also said the incident reflects confusion inside Iran’s leadership following the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in an Israeli-US strike.
“At the moment we are seeing spasmodic actions by the Iranian authorities, firing missiles indiscriminately”, he said.
“If they claim the drone directed at Azerbaijani territory was sent by Israel or Israeli spies, then the Iranian authorities should admit they do not control their own territory”.
Analysts brushed off the chance the strike was a case of accidental targeting or some drones gone wayward.
Farid Shafiyev, head of Azerbaijan’s Centre of Analysis of International Relations, said evidence suggested the drones were launched intentionally by Iranian forces. — AFP
