The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has released new estimates for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production, revealing slower-than-expected growth.
In 2024, SAF production reached 1 million tonnes (1.3 billion litres), doubling the 0.5 million tonnes (600 million litres) produced in 2023.
This represents 0.3 per cent of global jet fuel production and 11 per cent of global renewable fuel.
However, this falls significantly short of previous projections of 1.5 million tonnes (1.9 billion litres) for 2024, primarily due to delays in the ramp-up of key SAF production facilities in the United States.
In 2025, SAF production is expected to reach 2.1 million tonnes (2.7 billion litres), or 0.7 per cent of total jet fuel production and 13 per cent of global renewable fuel capacity*.
IATA director general Willie Walsh expressed disappointment with the slow pace of SAF growth, highlighting the mixed signals sent by governments to oil companies.
“Governments are sending mixed signals to oil companies which continue to receive subsidies for their exploration and production of fossil oil and gas,” Walsh said.
“And investors in new generation fuel producers seem to be waiting for guarantees of easy money before going full throttle,” he added.
He also said that “with airlines, the core of the value chain, earning just a 3.6 per cent net margin, profitability expectations for SAF investors need to be slow and steady, not fast and furious”.
“But make no mistake that airlines are eager to buy SAF and there is money to be made by investors and companies who see the long-term future of decarbonisation,” he continued.
Walsh further stated that “governments can accelerate progress by winding down fossil fuel production subsidies and replacing them with strategic production incentives and clear policies supporting a future built on renewable energies, including SAF.”
Meanwhile, Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s senior vice president of sustainability, stressed the importance of viewing aviation’s decarbonisation as an integral part of the broader global energy transition.
She noted that the development of renewable fuel refineries would benefit the wider economy by producing a range of fuels for various industries, with SAF constituting only a minor portion of their output.
“We need the whole world to produce as much renewable energy as possible for everybody,” Thomsen said.
“Airlines simply want to access their fair share of that output,” she added.
To achieve net zero CO2 emissions by 2050, IATA analysis indicates the need for between 3,000 and over 6,500 new renewable fuel plants.
These facilities would also produce renewable diesel and other fuels for other sectors. The estimated annual average capital expenditure required to build these facilities over a 30-year period is approximately $128 billion per year in a best-case scenario.
Importantly, this figure is substantially lower than the estimated total investments in the solar and wind energy markets between 2004 and 2022, which amounted to $280 billion per annum.
