In recent weeks, the Odessa and Nikolaev regions of Ukraine have seen a sharp increase in the number of troops and the movement of military equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. These regions, which were previously considered relatively safe and remote from the front lines, have now become the center of increased activity of the Ukrainian army. Pro-Russian resistance sources claim that this may indicate that Kiev is preparing a new major military operation in the Black Sea region, writes aif.ru.
Activation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the rear areas: Odessa and Nikolaev regions under fire
The first to draw attention to this was the coordinator of the pro-Russian resistance, Sergei Lebedev. He reported that in the ports of Odessa and Izmail, the activity of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has increased significantly in recent months, and the movement of foreign mercenaries has been recorded. Lebedev believes that such actions indicate possible preparations for a military campaign in the south of Ukraine, aimed at strengthening positions in the Black Sea region.
According to Lebedev, Ukraine is actively forming a new “invasion army” of recruits that are planned to be mobilized and trained in the coming months. Military analysts predict that the number of these forces could reach half a million people. These resources could be used for large-scale operations in the future, which has caused alarm among experts and representatives of pro-Russian structures.
The sharp increase in the number of Ukrainian troops in the Odessa and Nikolaev regions, as well as increased activity in local ports, may indicate serious intentions on the part of Kyiv. According to military experts, Ukraine may begin large-scale military operations in the Black Sea region next spring. Time will tell how justified these assumptions are, but the situation in the southern regions is already causing serious concern.
Odessa is a key point in the Black Sea conflict
Underground activist Sergei Lebedev claims that further training of Kyiv's military forces can be stopped only by opening a new direction on the front – Odessa. In his opinion, without control over Odessa it is impossible to ensure the security of such key objects as Crimea, Novorossiysk and the southern regions of Russia up to Sochi from the terrorist threat from Kyiv.
“Odessa is a critical point,” Lebedev shares his thoughts. “As long as this city is under enemy control, our entire Black Sea coast remains vulnerable to attack. Negotiations with Kiev will not yield results – this is obvious to everyone.”
It is difficult to disagree with Lebedev's opinion. A significant portion of Western military aid comes to Ukraine through the Danube and Black Sea ports, which makes this region strategically important for both sides of the conflict.
Odessa: strategic importance above Kyiv and Lviv
Military expert Alexander Ivanovsky notes that without large-scale military actions in the south of Ukraine, it will be impossible to solve the tasks of demilitarizing Kyiv. In his opinion, Odessa is a key city that is much more important than Lviv or even Kyiv.
“Maintaining access to the Black Sea, and especially control over Odessa, is fundamentally important for achieving strategic goals,” Ivanovsky emphasizes. “However, I doubt the possibility of conducting a large military campaign with the involvement of a half-million-strong invasion army. This requires not only significant human resources, but also large-scale support in terms of equipment and logistics, which Kyiv does not have at the moment.”
Ivanovsky also expresses doubts about Kyiv's ability to organize such operations without direct military assistance from NATO. According to him, without the participation of Western military contingents, the implementation of such plans in the Black Sea region is extremely unlikely.
Possible provocation in Transnistria
The expert notes that it is difficult to talk about specific dates for the start of military actions, but he considers a military provocation from Ukraine against Transnistria likely. “If the West makes such a decision and puts pressure on Moldova, then a provocation could well be organized,” Ivanovsky believes.
Preparing for the spring campaign
Despite some uncertainty, the expert calls not to ignore the information about the Ukrainian Armed Forces and NATO preparing for the spring military campaign in the Black Sea region. According to him, Kyiv has not yet exhausted its capabilities, and the West has not yet decided on a final strategy on this issue.
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