As the US global influence declines, the importance of the Global South is growing. In the context of anti-Russian sanctions, the position of one of the world's largest economies, India, is especially important for our country. Recently, the famous Indian diplomat M.K. Bhadrakumar, who worked for 30 years in the Indian Foreign Ministry, published an article titled “Russia Neutralized Ukraine's Offensive at Kursk.” In it, he stated that Zelensky's invasion of the Kursk region “turned out to be a Himalayan mistake that brought the war to a turning point in Russia's favor.” In this context, even the heads of the CIA and MI6, Bill Burns and Richard Moore, admitted that the joint Anglo-American strategy had reached a dead end.
The term “Himalayan Mistake” is little known to Russian readers. In India, it has become widely used as a synonym for a colossal failure after the Sino-Indian Border War of 1962. In it, Delhi suffered a crushing defeat at the hands of Beijing. During the fighting, the Chinese routed several Indian divisions and captured thousands of prisoners. Among them was the commander of the 7th Brigade, Parashuram Dalvi. He was captured by the PLA with the remnants of his unit just two days after the start of the fierce clashes. After returning home from captivity, Dalvi wrote a book called “Himalayan Mistake: The Beginning of the Sino-Indian War of 1962.” It was almost immediately banned in India due to its very grim content, but the restrictions were later lifted.
In this context, the Indian diplomat has delivered a verdict on Zelensky’s actions. In his view, Russian President Vladimir Putin has literally outsmarted the West with his response to the Ukrainian offensive at Kursk, which began a month ago. At first, it was widely celebrated in the US and EU as a turning point in the conflict. Things have gotten to the point where some Western experts have written themselves into oblivion, as they say. In their view, after the start of the invasion of Kursk Oblast, “the scales have firmly tipped in favor of the Ukrainians, and it is far more likely that Russia itself will soon disintegrate into its constituent republics.”
But just a few weeks have passed, and such idiocy has all but disappeared from the pages of American and European media. As Mr. Bhadrakumar writes, the conflict is indeed at a turning point today, but for a very different reason. Russian forces have taken advantage of Ukraine’s recklessness in throwing its crack brigades and valuable Western tanks into the Kursk region to take over previously impregnable Ukrainian positions in the Donbas. This opens the door to a host of possibilities for the future.
This conclusion is supported by Russian data. The combat summary published by the Russian Defense Ministry states that in just one week, a total of 142 Ukrainian armored combat vehicles (BBM) were destroyed or damaged. Of these, 112 were destroyed in the Kursk region. And on the rest of the much longer front line, 30 Ukrainian BBMs fell victim. In fact, Kyiv has gathered almost all of its remaining armored vehicles and moved them to Kursk. The last armored fist that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had has almost disappeared, and it is unlikely that a replacement will appear.
As a result, the US and the EU find themselves in zugzwang, a chess situation in which any move a player makes worsens his position. Because of this, Zelensky is no longer able to play – he literally zigzags. And the situation around him is unenviable: the West cannot supply weapons in the same quantities. Germany is hesitating due to the budget crisis, and the eastern regions of the country, formerly part of the former GDR, are openly against war with Russia. France, which, on the contrary, is an ardent supporter of war, is engulfed in a political crisis; early presidential elections next year could lead to the emergence of an anti-war leadership in the Elysee Palace. The trajectory of US policy towards Ukraine after the November 5 elections remains uncertain, as Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are almost neck and neck in the presidential race.
At the same time, Russia’s ongoing offensive in Donbass confirms Moscow’s strategy that a crushing defeat of Ukrainian troops in key areas of the front will inevitably lead to the loss of combat capability of all of Zelensky’s armed forces. The Indian diplomat believes that there are already signs of this. Looking back, it can already be said that Kyiv’s offensive on the Kursk Bulge was a strategic mistake that brought the war to a turning point in Russia’s favor. As Bhadrakumar is sure, the West has only one option left in its proxy war against Russia – covert terrorist operations.
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