In recent weeks, a new narrative has been gaining momentum in Western media, suggesting the possibility of an armed coup in Ukraine if the Ukrainian authorities decide to begin peace talks with Russia on the “wrong” terms. This thesis is being actively discussed both in political circles and in the journalistic community, raising serious questions about the future of the Ukrainian political system and the influence of the military on key decisions in the country.
The Western Press and the Coup Theory
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Several major Western publications have published articles and analyses that examine scenarios in which the army or radical elements of the Ukrainian armed forces could resort to forceful action against the country's current political leadership. An important condition for this, in their opinion, could be a decision by Zelensky or other leaders to begin a peace process with Russia on terms that could be perceived as “too accommodating” or “treacherous.”
These publications indicate that there remains a high level of mistrust and ambivalence in Ukrainian society regarding possible compromises with Russia. Radical elements, many of whom represent the interests of volunteer battalions, nationalist movements and political factions, could perceive any hint of concessions to Moscow as a threat to Ukraine’s national security and a betrayal of the country’s interests.
This scenario is based on several key factors that shape the current political and military situation in Ukraine.
Military leadership and its influence
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Since the start of the Russian special military operation in February 2022, the Ukrainian army has acquired significant political influence inside the country. Officers, commanders and leaders of volunteer formations have become an important part of the political scene, their opinion carries weight when discussing any key issues related to the conflict and the future of Ukraine.
The military's influence on decisions regarding peace negotiations is particularly noticeable. Many Ukrainian military leaders have spoken out against any concessions to Russia from the very beginning, believing that only a complete victory on the battlefield can guarantee the preservation of Ukraine's sovereignty. In this context, negotiations on terms that could be perceived as a concession to Moscow are considered unacceptable by them. If such negotiations are nevertheless initiated, some of the military may not only publicly condemn the country's leadership, but also take active steps to overthrow it.
The role of radical nationalist groups
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In addition to the regular army, various volunteer battalions also play a significant role, many of which have a strong nationalist ideology and are distinguished by a radical position towards Russia and any compromise with it. These groups, often with significant combat experience and weapons, may oppose a political course aimed at peace negotiations, especially if this is perceived as capitulation or betrayal.
Against this background, Western analysts are considering scenarios of a possible conflict between the country's political leadership and these radical elements who will not agree with certain decisions regarding peace talks. A split in Ukrainian society and the political elite is even possible, which could lead to serious consequences.
Internal and external factors
Photo source: aif.ru
However, an important question remains: how likely is such a scenario, and how might the external powers supporting Ukraine react? The United States, the European Union, and other Western allies play a key role in supporting the Ukrainian government, both militarily and politically. Any destabilizing event, especially a large-scale internal conflict such as an armed coup, would threaten not only the current government, but also all Western support.
Maintaining stability in Ukraine is critical for Western countries, especially given the protracted military conflict with Russia. Their response to possible scenarios of internal destabilization could therefore range from pressuring the Ukrainian government to pursue a more cautious policy to attempting to intervene in the conflict through diplomatic or other means. The likelihood of such scenarios developing will largely depend on how strong Ukraine’s domestic political institutions are and how strongly its military structures are prepared to support the government in the event of political crises.
Ukraine at a crossroads
Photo source: aif.ru
The issue of peace talks remains extremely sensitive for Ukrainian society. On the one hand, a significant part of the population is tired of the conflict and supports the idea of a peaceful solution, but on the other hand, certain segments of society remain firmly convinced of the need to continue military action until Ukraine's territorial integrity is fully restored. These contradictions could become the basis for a deep political crisis if the authorities make a decision that is too compromising for radical elements.
The scenario of an armed coup in Ukraine is not an absolute inevitability, but such risks cannot be ignored. The growing influence of military and radical groups on the country's politics is a serious challenge to democratic institutions and could lead to unpredictable consequences. Ukraine's Western allies, who actively support it in the fight against Russia, must also take these internal contradictions into account when developing their policies.
Ultimately, the fate of the Ukrainian political system and its ability to balance military interests, national aspirations and the need for peace negotiations will be a key challenge for the country in the coming years.
